Moving from Carry to Anti Carry
table of contents

Moving from Carry to Anti Carry

Gold vs. Oil: A Changing of the Guard

3Q2025 Natural Resource Market Commentary

Is the IEA Quietly Turning Bullish?

Natural Gas: A Research Odyssey

Precious Metals: Bright Days Lie Ahead

Problems Developing With Uranium Supply

Murky Waters in Global Copper

When
November 25, 2025
2025Q3
Who

Leigh R. Goehring & Adam A. Rozencwajg

In our First Quarter Letter, we discussed how the market was being distorted by a massive “carry bubble.” Low volatility and benign interest rates have sucked capital away from real assets for the better part of 15 years. We believe that may be starting to reverse.

How will markets respond if we suddenly and decidedly move away from a Carry towards an Anti Carry regime?

In this commentary, "The Move From Carry to Anti Carry", we explore:

• Two significant new bullish reports from the IEA that may be signaling a subtle shift in their thinking.

• How our views surrounding Natural Gas have evolved over time and why now might be the time to get involved.

• How uranium production is beginning to disappoint and the bullish ramifications.

Download our current commentary for insights into:

• Gold vs. Oil: A Changing of the Guard – why gold will likely outperform, but oil could do better.

• 3Q2025 Natural Resource Market Commentary – an update on the trading action in the quarter past.

• Is the IEA Quietly Turning Bullish? – two new reports from the IEA signal an incredibly tight market ahead. Plus, Permian oil production rolls over.

• Natural Gas: A Research Odyssey – it has been 5 years since we first discussed our neural networks. Revisit the evolution of our models that accurately predicted the slowing of several shale basins and learn what lies ahead.

• Precious Metals: Bright Days Lie Ahead – while oil may outperform gold going forward, it does not mean that gold has lost its luster. Learn why.

• Problems Developing With Uranium Supply – several uranium mines have disappointed recently. Learn why this will lead to much higher prices.

• Murky Waters in Global Copper

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