In our Q4 2025 letter, we examine what we believe are some of the most important developments currently unfolding across global commodity markets and the natural resource sector. As always, we aim to step back from short-term noise and focus on the structural forces shaping long-term cycles.
In this quarter’s research letter, When the Straight Closed, you will learn:
- A historic energy shock is unfolding. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting roughly 20% of global oil production and LNG trade, potentially the largest physical supply shock the energy market has ever faced.
- The commodity bull market may still be in its early innings. Despite strong performance in precious metals and resource equities, most commodities remain far below their historical peaks, suggesting the cycle may have only just begun.
- A powerful framework for understanding commodity cycles. The letter explains how capital cycles—not just supply and demand—drive commodity booms and busts, and why today’s capital starvation could set the stage for the next major rally.
- Evidence that energy may be the cheapest major asset class in the world. Oil, natural gas, and other energy commodities are trading near extreme undervaluation relative to equities, levels historically associated with major bull markets.
- Deep analysis across key resource markets. The report covers oil, natural gas, uranium, copper, precious metals, agriculture, and coal, highlighting the structural forces likely to shape commodity markets in the years ahead.
To download and read the letter, please fill out the form on this page.
